In terms of domestic bauxite
This week, the domestic bauxite market remained calm and mainly maintained a stable operation.
The fundamentals of domestic bauxite do not show an oversupply. As August is approaching, according to the current understanding of SMM, the price of bauxite in the northern region is expected to remain stable, while the price of bauxite in the southwest region shows an upward trend.
As of today, in Shanxi region, the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 5.0 and an alumina content of 60% by crushing plants, excluding value-added tax, is approximately 580 to 620 yuan per ton. In Henan region, the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 5.0 and an alumina content of 60% for crushing plants, excluding value-added tax, is around 550-590 yuan per ton. In Guizhou region, the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 5.5 and an alumina content of 58% for crushing plants, excluding value-added tax, is between 410 and 450 yuan per ton. In Guangxi region, the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 6.0 and an alumina content of 53% from the crushing plant, excluding value-added tax, is between 320 and 335 yuan per ton.
Regarding the import of bauxite
According to the data on July 25th, the total weekly arrival volume of bauxite at domestic ports was 4.2411 million tons, a decrease of 486,800 tons compared with the previous week. The total weekly output of bauxite from Guinea's major ports was 3.0162 million tons, an increase of 1.73 million tons compared to the previous week. The total weekly outflow of bauxite from major Australian ports was 1.1035 million tons, a decrease of 250,400 tons compared to the previous week. In the four weeks of July, the average weekly shipment volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 2.45 million tons, a decrease of 870,000 tons compared to the average weekly shipment volume of 3.32 million tons in the fourth week of June. Under the influence of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of bauxite has declined. It is expected that the total amount of bauxite imported by China from Guinea from August to October will decline. The fundamentals of bauxite are expected to gradually turn into a shortage. The trend of bauxite accumulation is expected to slow down.
In terms of price, the trading of bulk imported bauxite remained sluggish this week. At present, due to the influence of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of bauxite has decreased. The consignor has raised the quotations for bauxite that has drifted by sea and those that have been shipped recently. However, despite the high inventory, the intended price of downstream alumina plants remains at $72- $73 per ton. This week, the SMM import bauxite CIF index and the CIF price of bauxite from Guinea rose slightly. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price of bauxite in Guinea was reported at $73.5 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from last Thursday. The SMM bauxite import index stood at $73.91 per ton, up $0.87 per ton from last Thursday.
In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the production cost of alumina made from domestic bauxite still has an advantage. The short-term price is expected to remain stable and relatively strong. In terms of imported bauxite, both buyers and sellers are in a continuous game of strategy, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. On the one hand, the high inventory of bauxite exerts certain pressure on the bulk price of imported ore. On the other hand, the operating capacity of alumina has increased, the demand for bauxite has risen, and the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea has decreased. As a result, the sellers' intention to hold prices has gradually strengthened. Under the bargaining between buyers and sellers, the short-term price is expected to fluctuate mainly. The subsequent price trend requires continuous attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea, the operating capacity of alumina and the profit situation of alumina.