To the global market:
34% of investors believe that shorting the US dollar is the most crowded trade, a further increase from June and the first time such a situation has occurred. Secondly, go long on the "Seven Sisters of Technology" and gold
The cash ratio has dropped to a historical low again, falling to 3.9% in July
Nearly half of the people expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year. A quarter of people expect Bessent to become the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve
The market expects the final tariff level of the United States on other markets to be 14%, slightly higher than 12% in June
5. The overweight ratios of global investors to the euro and European stocks have both reached new highs
For the Chinese market:
The proportion of people who believe that China's growth is under pressure remained the same as in June, but the proportion of those who think that the long-term structural valuation is still in a downward trend has further increased
Compared with June, more investors are willing to seek allocation opportunities in markets other than China
In the Asia-Pacific region, the proportion of investors who are optimistic about Japan remains the largest (dropping from 45% to 32%), followed by South Korea (rising from 5% to 16%), and India (dropping from 17% to 10%). China's decline further dropped from -5% to -13%
Within the Chinese market, foreign capital is most optimistic about AI, dividends (rising to second place), the Internet (rising to third place), and pharmaceuticals, but still has no interest in consumption
I. Global Investment Manager Survey
Global investor sentiment has recovered to a new high since February 2025, with 59% of investors believing that the global economy will not decline in the coming year, the most optimistic level for the global economy in the past five months
The cash ratio dropped to a low point again, falling to 3.9% in July
47% of people expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year (the same as last month). 26% of people expect Bessant to become the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve, followed by Walsh (17%) and Waller (14%).
The market expects the final tariff level of the United States on other markets to be 14%, slightly higher than 12% in June
5. 34% of people believe that shorting the US dollar is the most crowded trade, further rising from June and marking the first time such a situation has occurred. Next are going long on the "Tech Seven Sisters" and gold
6. The overweight ratios of global investors to the euro and European stocks have both reached new highs
In June and July, investors increased their allocation to technology, US stocks and materials, while reducing their allocation to cash, consumer staples, banks and emerging markets
Ii. Survey of Asian Investment Managers
The proportion of people who believe that China's economy will weaken in the next 12 months remains the same as in June, at 10%
Despite this, investors' outlook for the long-term structural outlook has not improved significantly. 58% of investors believe that the valuation is in a structural downturn, up from 50% in June
Compared with June, more investors are willing to seek allocation opportunities in markets other than China
3. Investors have become more optimistic about the Japanese economy. Compared with June, more investors expect the Japanese economy to improve
4. Within the Asia-Pacific region, investors who are optimistic about Japan remain the largest (the proportion drops from 45% to 32%), followed by South Korea (rising from 5% to 16%), and India (dropping from 17% to 10%). However, China's figure dropped further from -5% to -13%
Within the Chinese market, the sectors that investors are most optimistic about remain AI, dividends (rising to the second place), and the Internet (rising to the third place), with no consumption yet