On the morning of August 11th, spot gold rose to $3,400 per ounce and then dropped briefly, falling by more than 0.6% at one point.
As of the time of publication, COMEX gold futures have dropped by 1.34%.
Rumors of "gold bar tariffs"
Trigger fluctuations in the price of gold
Rumors of "gold bar tariffs" have caused fluctuations in the price of gold. According to the Financial Times of the UK, the US government has imposed tariffs on one kilogram of imported gold bars. It was reported that in a "ruling letter" issued by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on July 31, it was stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under the customs codes applicable for taxation.
In response to this, the White House of the United States promptly responded. According to Bloomberg, the White House plans to issue an executive order in the near future to clarify the false information about tariffs on gold and other special products made by an official. Bloomberg said that the White House's order to clarify its position will help calm the market chaos caused by concerns over import tariffs on gold.
Furthermore, on August 9 local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman emphasized in her recent speech that the latest employment data has strengthened the argument that there will be three rate cuts this year. She called on other policymakers to start cutting rates at the Federal Reserve meeting in September. She pointed out that the upside risk of inflation has decreased and the Federal Reserve should proactively cut interest rates to prevent further deterioration of the labor market.
On August 10 local time, US Treasury Secretary Jason Bessent said that he was leading the search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Bessent said that the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve should be trusted by the market and hopes that the chairperson of the Federal Reserve has "forward-thinking". Bessent believes that the independence of monetary policy is crucial to the economy and hopes to maintain the reserve currency status of the US dollar through policy.
Donghai Futures believes that the economic data of the United States continues to weaken. The ISM non-manufacturing index of the United States in July was 50.1, lower than the market expectation of 51.5 and also lower than the previous value of 50.8. Under the continuous pressure from Trump and with Milan nominated as a temporary member of the Federal Reserve Board, the balance of the Fed's independence may gradually tip. Currently, the market expects that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is nearly 90%. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data. Precious metals are relatively strong in the short term, supported by expectations of easing. The logic for medium and long-term allocation remains unchanged.
Hualian Futures believes that from the second half of 2025, the central bank's gold purchases, ETF investments and the weakening of the US dollar will provide support, causing wide fluctuations in gold prices. The Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting raised the inflation and unemployment expectations for 2025-2026, lowered the economic growth forecast, and maintained that there would be two more interest rate cuts this year and lowered the rate cut next year. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September, and gold may continue to rise in the fourth quarter. The long-term positive logic for gold remains, including the weakening of the US dollar and the central bank's gold purchases due to global political and economic instability. The view that gold will rise in the long term remains unchanged.