Recently, the metal industry has shown a rich variety of dynamics under the intertwined influence of the global economic environment and industrial transformation. From price trends to corporate strategic planning, from market supply and demand structures to industry policy guidance, many aspects are undergoing changes worthy of attention.
In terms of prices, non-ferrous metal prices have been active. Driven by the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the recovery of demand during the industrial peak season, the prices of precious metals and industrial metals have generally strengthened. This week (August 18 - August 22), COMEX gold rose by 1.05%, and silver increased by 2.26%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, and other varieties also rose slightly. Meanwhile, the industrial non-ferrous metal index was also outstanding. As of the close on August 25, the daily increase was 5.90%, with a trading volume of 87.547 billion yuan. Specifically, copper prices have been affected by stable growth in power demand, disruptions in ore supply, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although it is currently in a period of low demand, its long-term resource attributes are prominent. The aluminum market has rigid supply. Although it is currently in the accumulation stage during the off-season in China, it is expected that as the downstream industry exits the off-season, inventories will remain at historically low levels, and the supply and demand will maintain a tight balance in the second half of the year, with industry profits expected to remain high. The rare earth market is expected to continue to rise due to factors such as intense bidding by multiple large domestic downstream factories, overseas inventory replenishment, and China's strengthened supply control.
At the corporate level, many companies are actively expanding production capacity and making strategic adjustments. Shengda Resources' 2025 semi-annual report shows that its non-ferrous metal mining and selection business achieved revenue of 640 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.24%. Through controlling multiple mining subsidiaries, it has rich resource reserves, and the construction progress of the mines to be put into production is smooth, with expected future capacity release. Zijin Mining established Fujian Zijin Rare and Precious Metals Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 5 billion yuan, laying out in the rare and precious metals field and strengthening the extension of the industrial chain. At the same time, its large-scale transactions in the past three months have been frequent, with a total amount of 727 million yuan, demonstrating institutional investors' recognition of its long-term value. Additionally, on August 20, the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a strong fluctuation, with Luoping Zinc and Electricity and Yunnan Germanium Industry reaching the daily limit, and the prices of small metals continued to rise. For instance, the price of antimony broke through the 180,000 yuan per ton mark, and the market price of germanium reached 11,650 yuan per kilogram, enhancing the performance improvement expectations of related listed companies.
In terms of the industry landscape, China's non-ferrous metal industry has witnessed overinvestment in some areas, not only in traditional smelting and ordinary processing materials but also in high-end fields such as new energy metals and electronic copper foil. However, in the first half of the year, the added value of large-scale non-ferrous metal industries increased by 7.6% year-on-year, the output of ten common non-ferrous metals increased by 2.9% year-on-year, large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved operating income of 4,793.25 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year, and realized a total profit of 217.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.0% year-on-year. The industry as a whole is stable and improving. Subsequently, the non-ferrous metal industry will strictly implement measures such as capacity replacement, strengthen capacity early warning, and address excessive internal competition and disorderly low-price competition.
The metal industry is at a critical development juncture. Price fluctuations, corporate strategic adjustments, and the optimization of industry policies will continue to shape the future development path of the industry, which deserves close attention from practitioners and investors.