On August 11th, the balance of financing once again exceeded 2 trillion yuan, which was ten years after the last time. Over the past decade, the scale of financing has been roughly the same, but the maturity of the capital market has been completely different. Since the "September 24" rally kicked off in 2024, the A-share market has entered A "slow bull" track, with major stock indices rising steadily. The Shanghai Composite Index has once again surpassed 3,600 points, and medium - and long-term funds have been accelerating their entry into the market, laying a solid foundation for market stability.
The rapid growth of the balance of this round of financing is mainly driven by the coordinated resonance of the introduction of favorable policies, the stability of the macroeconomy and the rise of independent technology. These three factors have jointly enhanced the attractiveness of Chinese assets, warmed up market sentiment and attracted the rational participation of leveraged funds.
At the policy level, China has been continuously deepening the reform of the capital market. The new "Nine Policies", the "1+N" policy for the capital market, and the new dividend regulations have been successively implemented. The reform highlights the main line of strengthening the foundation and strictly supervising and managing, and is making every effort to promote the high-quality development of the capital market. In terms of margin trading and short selling business, through a series of measures of "suppressing short selling and promoting long selling, combining guidance and control", efforts have been made to build a long-term regulatory system. This has ensured that the capital market structure remains healthy during the process of the margin balance returning to 2 trillion yuan this time, effectively preventing the risk of leverage bubbles.
At the macroeconomic level, in the first half of this year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% year-on-year, leading among major economies and fully demonstrating the strong vitality and resilience of the Chinese economy. The total financial volume has shown a reasonable growth trend. The cumulative increment of social financing scale in the first half of the year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. The moderately loose monetary policy has achieved remarkable results. Steady economic growth also indicates the recovery of corporate profits. According to statistics, as of August 11, 234 listed companies have disclosed their semi-annual reports, achieving a combined net profit attributable to shareholders of 207.7 billion yuan, an increase of 28.531 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The continuous improvement of the fundamentals of listed companies has become a key factor in attracting financing funds to increase their holdings.
In terms of technological innovation, data shows that the total R&D expenditures of A-share listed companies from 2022 to 2024 were 1.64 trillion yuan, 1.72 trillion yuan, and 1.84 trillion yuan respectively. Thanks to the long-term increase in R&D investment by A-share listed companies and their commitment to independent research and development, they have continuously achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as semiconductors, computing power, and humanoid robots. Catalyze investment in "new quality productivity". Since June 23rd, the individual stocks that have been net bought through margin financing have been mainly high-R&D and high-growth technology leaders, such as Hengrui Medicine (600276), Hygon Information, and Pengding Holdings (002938), etc. Their R&D investment in 2024 is all above 2 billion yuan, and the cumulative net purchase of margin financing funds has exceeded 500 million yuan, highlighting the continuous optimism of margin financing funds towards the technology innovation track.
From multiple data such as a lower leverage ratio, active participation in trading, and concentration of individual stocks, it can be seen that this round of leveraged funds' increase in holdings is more rational. The market's upward trend is the result of the joint participation of institutional funds and small and medium-sized investors. Compared with historical peaks, the sentiment and valuation indicators of financing funds still have room for growth. The health of the capital market in 2025 will significantly improve.