【 Today's attention 】 The opening of the domestic commodity market is mostly red! Live pigs, iron ore, polyolefin and other popular varieties interpretation!
359 visitors 2024-11-28 10:04
REVIEW
Today's market overview
Most of the domestic commodity futures market opened red
On Thursday (November 28), most of the domestic commodity futures market opened red, rubber led the rise, rubber, 20 rubber rose more than 2%, Shanghai zinc, freight index (European line), palm oil, Shanghai lead rose more than 1%; Shanghai tin, low sulfur fuel oil fell more than 1%.
FOCUS
Today's focus
Pigs, iron ore, polyolefin
Live pig
Yesterday the national pig price is weak adjustment, the group out of the normal rhythm, the supply is relatively adequate. The supply of breeding companies in Northeast China is sufficient, and the plan of slaughtering enterprises is completed faster. The pressure of sustained growth of demand in the two regions is relatively large, and the pressure of supply is prominent. The head of the enterprise at the end of the month basically did not reduce the performance, the second education and retail enthusiasm has increased, mainly with the trend, some retail investors continue to wait and see, waiting for the winter solstice before the column. The current inventory pressure has not yet cleared, but at the same time, the temperature has dropped, the demand for curing gradually started, the market mood has improved, and the short-term pig price has been mainly affected by the shock upward, focusing on the boost of the demand for curing.
Iron ore
Iron ore first strong after weak, is expected to be weak in the short term adjustment. The I2501 contract rose to around 770 and is expected to remain at around 780 in the short term. It is expected that the probability of staying above 750 is large, and the probability of falling below 750 is small. The discount for the far month remains around 10 and is expected to expand to around 50.
Iron ore inventories are high and stable, and market sentiment is slightly weak. From the supply point of view, the global iron ore shipments are stable in the short term, the arrival volume is relatively high, and the short-term supply pressure is expected to be greater. From the perspective of demand, the volume of port thinning returns to a high level, and the demand is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. Iron ore port inventory remained high, plant inventory low rise. Iron ore fundamentals are expected to ease pressure and speculative sentiment is relatively cautious.
polyolefin
On the macro side, the policy is in a vacuum period, the market risk appetite and sentiment are cooling down, the early bulls gradually leave the market, and the industrial products return to the fundamental logic trading; The impact of Trump abroad continues, and expectations of tariffs and a strong dollar are bearish for some industrial goods and non-US financial assets. From a micro point of view, the expected external maintenance of polyolefin supply side still exists, but there is a subsequent reduction expectation, the start of the demand side and the performance of orders are weak, and the future supply and demand may appear an inflection point. The standard inventory is relatively limited, which can bring some support to polyolefin (especially PE) before the delivery month, but the impact of the strong dollar and weak demand has also suppressed the energy valuation to a certain extent, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of further decline in oil prices.