Industry trends
1,Iron ore
In terms of price: This week, the domestic iron concentrate price index declined. The 66% concentrate index in Tangshan was 868 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan per ton from Monday and 0.23% from the previous week. The 65% vanadium and titanium price index in Chengde was 810 yuan per ton, stable compared with Monday of this week. The index of 65% pelletizing fine powder in Huoqiu is 873 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from this Monday and 1.16% from the previous week.
Research data :Mysteel conducted a survey on some steel mills, mines and beneficiation plants regarding the market trend for next week. Among them, 20% of the customers of steel enterprises believe that the price of domestic ore has room to rise, 60% believe that the market will be stable next week, and 20% believe that the market will decline next week. 46.15% of the customers of the mineral processing enterprises believe that the domestic mineral prices have some room for increase next week, 46.15% think the prices will remain stable, and 7.69% believe there is a risk of price decline.
Summary and forecast: This week, the inventories of both domestic and imported ore used for sintering in steel mills have increased. This is mainly due to the reduction in daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills, which has led to a slowdown in consumption and thus prompted inventory accumulation. The inventory of domestic ore has slightly decreased compared to the previous week, which is attributed to the decline in domestic concentrate production and reflects the adjustment of supply reduction at the production end. Although the increase in iron ore market prices may indirectly affect the purchasing pace, the inventory changes are mainly driven by short-term fluctuations in supply and demand. The reduction in daily consumption and the adjustment of production are the key factors. Domestic iron ore is likely to stop falling and rebound next week.
2.Coal coke
In terms of price: The domestic market coke price remained stable this week. The price of coke has dropped for four consecutive rounds so far, with a cumulative decline of 220 to 240 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of coking coal strengthened this week. On the 4th, the Mysteel domestic spot comprehensive index of coking coal was 947.1, up 1.5 from the previous working day. The average price in July was 944.5.
Research data: This week, Mysteel's statistics on the full sample of independent coke enterprises show that the capacity utilization rate is 73.17%, a decrease of 0.18%. The average daily output of coke was 64.35, a decrease of 0.16. The coke inventory was 102.10, a decrease of 10.93. The total inventory of coking coal was 848.18, an increase of 39.2. The available days of coking coal were 9.9 days, an increase of 0.48 days. This week, Mysteel conducted a survey of 230 independent coke enterprises across the country: the capacity utilization rate was 73.20%, a decrease of 0.06%. The average daily output of coke was 51.63, a decrease of 0.04. The coke inventory was 61.60, a decrease of 12.13. The total inventory of coking coal was 716.44, an increase of 37.81. The available days of coking coal were 10.4 days, an increase of 0.55 days. This week, the coal and Coke division of Mysteel conducted a survey on the profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants across the country. The national average profit per ton of coke was -52 yuan per ton. The average profit of Shanxi's quasi-first grade coke is -38 yuan per ton, that of Shandong's quasi-first grade coke is 1 yuan per ton, that of Inner Mongolia's second grade coke is -91 yuan per ton, and that of Hebei's quasi-first grade coke is 19 yuan per ton.
Summary and forecast: On the supply side, after four rounds of decline in coke prices, profits have been poor and losses have intensified. There have been successive production cuts. In some regions, inventories in factories are still accumulating, making shipments rather difficult. There is still a possibility of production cuts in the future. Recently, due to the shutdown of some coal mines, production has decreased, and the prices of some coal types have rebounded somewhat. However, this is not enough to support another price drop of coke, so it is temporarily stable in the short term. In terms of black demand, the output of molten iron has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. Recently, the price of steel has been fluctuating and declining, and the transaction volume of steel has been average. This week, the production of steel mills has remained stable for the time being. Under the influence of the pessimistic sentiment of the downstream towards the future market, the purchasing sentiment of raw materials is weak, with purchasing mainly based on demand. Moreover, many steel mills have controlled the arrival of goods. Coupled with the arrival of the rainy season in the south, the market for finished products has gradually weakened. However, the profits of steel mills remain considerable. In the short term, they will enter a stage of competition with coke. It is expected to be stable in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the sales of finished products and the impact of the futures market on the market. In the short term, the spot price of coke will remain weak and stable. On the supply side, some coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi that were previously shut down due to safety supervision have resumed production this week. However, some coal mines with lean coal and lean coke have newly ceased production but have not yet resumed, and resources remain in short supply. The short-term structural trend of coking coal is obvious. On the demand side, although steel mills are expected to have an off-season in the short term, the pressure of shipment is relatively small. Moreover, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the operating rate of steel mills is relatively high. Therefore, there is still a rigid demand for coking coal in the short term. Driven by the high level of molten iron and the essential replenishment demand of coking and steel enterprises, some high-quality coal types have rebounded and risen. Overall, it is expected that the domestic market price of coking coal may continue to rebound next week. However, the sustainability of the price increase still depends on supply contraction or unexpected demand. It is necessary to pay close attention to the progress of coal mine resumption of production and the consumption of steel
3.Steel billet
In terms of price: This week, the average cost of molten iron (excluding tax) of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,033 yuan per ton, and the average cost of steel billets (including tax) was 2,774 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23 yuan per ton compared with the previous week. Compared with the current factory price of 2,930 yuan per ton for common billets on July 4th, the average profit of steel mills was 156 yuan per ton, an increase of 43 yuan per ton compared with the previous week.
Research data: During the research period, the total finished product inventory of 43 billet adjustment plants in Tangshan was 856,000 tons, a decrease of 78,600 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of section steel was 833,000 tons, a decrease of 62,600 tons compared with the previous week. During the research period, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of billet rolling mills dropped to the lowest level of the year. In some periods, low-price transactions increased in volume, mainly selling finished material inventories. Overall inventories showed a downward trend.
Summary and prediction: The current upward trend in the market price of steel billets is mainly influenced by news and sentiment, and the contradictions in the fundamentals of steel billets are gradually accumulating. On the supply side, the volume of steel billets sold for some blast furnace maintenance has decreased. In the future, steel enterprises' rolling lines will have maintenance and reduction plans, and the volume of steel billets sold for sales will mainly increase. On the demand side, the operating rate of billet rolling mills is relatively low, and they are cautious about purchasing billets, consuming the billet inventory within the plants. Coupled with the high inventory of finished products within the plants, the short-term demand for billets remains weak. On the inventory side, the problem of strong supply and weak demand is prominent, and the inventory of steel billets is accumulating rapidly. In terms of sentiment, the futures of rebar have been fluctuating at a higher level, while the spot market has been struggling to follow up. The price difference between futures and spot has widened, and the trading of futures and spot resources has been more active than before. Overall, it is expected that the ex-factory price of steel scrap will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week, but the space will be limited.
4.Hot-rolled medium plate
In terms of price: This week, the domestic hot-rolled coil and sheet prices rose slightly. The average price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coil and sheet in 24 major markets across the country was 3,325 yuan per ton, an increase of 39 yuan per ton compared with last week. The average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil was 3,266 yuan per ton, an increase of 39 yuan per ton compared with last week. This week, the national market prices of medium and heavy plates fluctuated narrowly. The price of medium and heavy plates in Beijing and Tianjin has slightly risen. The current quoted price of 14-20mm common medium plates is 3,250-3,350 yuan per ton. The price of medium and heavy plates in Guangzhou has slightly declined, with the mainstream weighing price reported at 3,550-3,560 yuan per ton. The national market price of carbon structural plates has been fluctuating narrowly, with an average price of 3,531 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton compared to last week.
According to the inventory data of hot-rolled coil and sheet in various regions, the region with the largest decline was the northwest region, which dropped by 19,600 tons compared to last week. The region with the largest increase was the South China region, which rose by 32,000 tons compared to last week.
The total social inventory of medium plates in the national warehouse was 964,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to last week. Region-specific, North China saw the largest reduction this week, at 21,700 tons. This week's operating rate was 83.08%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The actual weekly output of the steel plant was 1.6224 million tons, an increase of 0.48 million tons compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of the steel plant was 99.77%, rising by 0.29% compared with the previous week. The inventory of steel mills was 818,500 tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons compared with the previous week.
Summary and forecast: This week, the market for hot-rolled coil and sheet fluctuated upward, and markets in various regions began to gradually rise from the middle of the week. From the perspective of the market situation, it is currently in a seasonal off-season. In some areas, high temperatures have led to overlapping transactions. The maintenance situation of steel mills has decreased, and inventories have slightly increased. This week, the futures market has been fluctuating. Under the backdrop of strong supply and weak demand in the market, market inventories have slightly increased, and downstream demand has weakened to a certain extent. It is expected that the market price will mainly fluctuate and remain weak next week. This week, the overall price of the medium and heavy plate market has fluctuated narrowly, and the transaction situation is not good. On the demand side, the consumption of medium and heavy plates this week was 1.6272 million tons, an increase of 19,900 tons compared to last week, with a month-on-month growth of 2.14%. The enthusiasm of downstream purchasers is relatively low, and they still do not know how to produce domestic products. In terms of market sentiment, traders currently show signs of inventory build-up and are rather pessimistic about the future market. At present, they are mainly selling off. Overall, it is expected that the domestic medium and heavy plate market will likely show a narrow range of fluctuations next week.
5.Cold-rolled coating and plating
In terms of price: This week, the prices of cold-rolled steel sheets and coils across the country fluctuated. In many places such as Shanghai, Hangzhou and Tianjin, the market prices rose by 10 to 120 yuan per ton, while in Jinan, Shenyang and Harbin, the market prices dropped by 20 to 50 yuan per ton. As of the time of publication, the average price of 1.0 cold-rolled steel is 3,715 yuan per ton, rising by 10 yuan per ton compared with the previous week. The current main market prices are as follows: The quoted price of 1.0 Ansteel Tian Tie cold coil in the Tianjin market is 3,590 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan per ton. The quoted price of 1.0mm Baosteel Qingshan cold coil in the Shanghai market is 3,610 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 120 yuan per ton. The quotation for 1.0mm Ansteel cold coil in Guangzhou is 3,720 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan per ton.
The average price of 0.476mm color-coated steel coil in major cities across the country has dropped by 16 yuan per ton, and the current average price is 4,959 yuan per ton, with a market decline ranging from 50 to 80 yuan per ton.
Research data: Among the 29 cold-rolled sheet and coil manufacturing enterprises monitored by Mysteel, the operating rate this week was 82.98%, remaining unchanged compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of the steel plant was 87.17%, an increase of 0.17% compared with the previous week. The actual weekly output of the steel plant was 882,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of steel mills was 415,500 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons compared with the previous week. On the 3rd, our website monitored the inventories of 26 cities. This week, the social inventory of cold-rolled steel sheets and coils was 131.04, a decrease of 0.35 compared with the previous week, 0.29 compared with the previous month, and 17.12 compared with the same period last year (lunar calendar), and 16.72 compared with the same period last year (Gregorian calendar). On the 3rd, our website monitored the inventories of 29 cities. This week, the social inventory of cold-rolled steel sheets and coils was 223.72, a decrease of 1.69 compared with the previous week, 3.92 compared with the previous month, 12.73 compared with the same period last year (lunar calendar), and 12.91 compared with the same period last year (Gregorian calendar). According to the inventory monitoring of key cities by Japan Net, the social inventory of cold-rolled sheet and coil this week was 253.00, a decrease of 1.39 compared with the previous week, 3.04 compared with the previous month, and 10.52 compared with the same period last year (lunar calendar), and 10.12 compared with the same period last year (Gregorian calendar).
The capacity utilization rate of Mysteel sample Ganben Steel Plant was 54.49%, a decrease of 1.50% compared with last week. The weekly output was 163,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to last week. The inventory of steel mills is 153,100 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons compared with last week. The total inventory of color-coated steel coil is 419,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with last week
Summary and forecast: According to feedback from some traders in East China, the current price increase is mainly due to the rise in futures prices. Coupled with the release of some purchasing sentiment from downstream terminals, although the market has been affected by some off-season demand, the transaction performance within the week was still acceptable. In terms of price, the price of cold-rolled sheet and coil has been at a low level recently. Although there was a slight increase during the week, due to the impact of off-season demand, there is room for fluctuation in the price of cold-rolled sheet and coil. Overall, it is expected that the prices of cold-rolled steel sheets and coils across the country will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of raw materials, the prices of raw materials rose this week, but the cost support still exists. From the perspective of total inventory, the total inventory of color-coated steel slightly increased this week, with a decrease in factory warehouses and an increase in social warehouses, which indirectly reflects insufficient consumption. Overall, the cost support for color-coated steel still exists at present, but consumption remains weak. It is expected that the price of color-coated steel sheets and coils will continue to decline weakly as a whole next week.
6.Pipe belt
In terms of price: Tangshan 145 strip steel: This week, the price of Tangshan 145 strip steel has been strengthening. As of the time of publication, the factory quote for Shoutang Baosheng 2.5*145-252mm strip steel is 3,160 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan per ton compared with the previous week.
This week, the prices of welded pipes in major cities across the country remained stable with a tendency to strengthen. According to Mysteel data, as of July 4th, the average price of 4-inch *3.75mm welded pipes in 28 major cities across the country was 3,489 yuan per ton, rising by 16 yuan per ton compared with the previous week. The average price of 4-inch *3.75mm galvanized pipes was 4,063 yuan per ton, increasing by 18 yuan per ton compared with the previous week.
Research data :Mysteel 's national key hot-rolled strip steel production enterprises' operating rate this week was 67.65%, rising by Π堎0.98 percentage points week-on-week. It rose by 2.94 percentage points month-on-month. The capacity utilization rate was 73.82%, rising by 1.89 percentage points week-on-week. It rose by 2.78 percentage points month-on-month. This week, the actual output of the steel plant was 2.171 million tons, an increase of 55,600 tons compared with the previous week and 81,700 tons compared with the previous month. The inventory of the steel plant was 327,700 tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons compared with the previous week. It decreased by 29,300 tons month-on-month.
This week, the performance of welding and plating production was differentiated, and the inventory within the factory was somewhat reduced. This week, the output of welded pipes was 273,400 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 49.41%, a decline of 0.87% compared with the previous week. The output of galvanized pipes was 232,400 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, up 3.64% from the previous week. This week, the market situation rebounded somewhat. However, due to the off-season effect, the rebound in spot prices was lower than that in futures prices. Traders still mainly replenished inventories as needed, and the overall social inventory rose slightly. The performance of welding and galvanizing production in pipe factories has shown some differentiation. The profit of welded pipe production has continued to contract, but the immediate profit of galvanized pipes has recovered somewhat. Moreover, the overall inventory reduction is not significant. On the basis of maintaining the price of raw material strip steel, it is expected that the production of pipe factories may still decline next week. This week, the inventory of pipe factories (including galvanized pipes) was 650,300 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to last week and a month-on-month increase of 4.97%.
Summary and forecast: This week, the price of scrap steel has risen by 20 yuan per ton compared to last week, increasing the profits of steel mills. Moreover, the capacity utilization rate of 145 strip steel is low, and some steel mills have suspended production to alleviate supply pressure. Meanwhile, the accumulation of inventory, weak downstream transactions and widespread rainfall in North China have suppressed demand and restricted the upward space for prices. To sum up, it is expected that the 145 strip steel in Tangshan will remain stable with a tendency to strengthen next week. This week, the price of welded pipes has been stable with a tendency to strengthen. Under the influence of high temperatures and rainy weather, the off-season effect is obvious. However, the market trading logic has shifted from being guided by fundamentals to being guided by sentiment. The price of steel has risen significantly. In the spot market of welded pipes, despite the increase in arrival costs, demand has not improved significantly, and the market price has mainly followed narrowly. At present, coke enterprises have the intention to raise prices, which may provide support for the prices at the finished product end. After entering July, the price of welded pipes stopped falling, but the market trading did not show a significant improvement. The market trading logic is likely to return to the fundamentals of supply and demand again. In the short term, with the strong support of raw material costs, it is expected that the national welded pipe market price will remain stable with a tendency to strengthen next week
7.Section steel
In terms of price: As of the close of trading this Friday, the average price situation in major national markets: The national average price of 200*200 H-beams was 3,088 yuan per ton, an increase of 7 yuan per ton compared with last week. The price of 588*300H steel is 3,163 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan per ton compared with last week. The price of 5# Angle steel is 3,407 yuan per ton, an increase of 34 yuan per ton compared with last week. The price of 16# channel steel is 3,411 yuan per ton, an increase of 31 yuan per ton compared with last week. The price of 25# I-beam is 3,430 yuan per ton, an increase of 29 yuan per ton compared with last week
Research data: This week, the operating rate of I-beam, Angle and channel steel plants across the country was 25.22%, a decrease of 3.48% compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate was 25.64%, a decrease of 1.99% compared to last week. This week, the national output of industrial angles was 315,200 tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons compared with last week. This week, the inventory of I-beam, Angle and channel steel plants across the country was 982,500 tons, a decrease of 30,600 tons compared with last week. Among the 22 H-beam manufacturing enterprises monitored by Mysteel across the country, the operating rate this week was 51.61%, a decrease of 9.68% compared with the previous week. The actual weekly output of the steel plant was 243,500 tons, a decrease of 14.86% compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of the steel plant was 43.65%, a decrease of 7.62% compared with the previous week. Inventory was 227,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9.92%. Mysteel Section steel social inventory statistics: This week, the national inventory of tools, angles and channels was 641,900 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared with last week. The national inventory of H-beams was 739,400 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons compared with last week.
Summary and prediction: Overall, this week's profile market transactions were mainly in the form of low-price resource purchases, and the market's acceptance of high-price resources was limited. At present, the existence of the off-season effect of demand still needs to be taken into account, and the market is prone to fluctuations. At present, the support from the raw material end still exists. In the short term, there is an expectation of a reduction in the supply of profiles, and the supply and demand will remain in a weak balance stage. Overall, it is expected that the domestic section steel market price will remain stable with a slight increase next week.