(1) Domestic: there are more signals of economic stabilization and recovery, but the improvement in aggregate demand is not comprehensive, the problems of insufficient effective demand and weakening prices still exist, and the necessity of stabilizing growth at the policy end still exists. We will follow the arrangements for next year's economic work made at the important meeting in early to mid-December.
(2) Abroad: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trend continues during the year, and the probability of slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts next year is high, which restricts the easing of domestic monetary policy and constitutes a negative for commodities with strong financial attributes.
Iron mine
Steel plant raw material winter storage has started, iron ore prices are relatively strong
Iron ore supply: neutral
Australia's mainstream mining shipments will enter the year-end upswing stage, and shipments will remain relatively high after the recovery of Vale's production capacity. Overseas non-mainstream mines were lower than the same period last year for many consecutive weeks, and the shipment of hedge mainstream mines increased year-on-year. 45 port imported ore to the port of high volatility. And near the end of the year, the start of domestic mines gradually fell. The increase of iron ore supply is limited compared with last year.
Iron ore demand: neutral and more profitable
Blast furnace production mainly follows the profit changes of steel mills and steel demand changes, the short-term daily output of blast furnace hot metal remains high, and the subsequent seasonal downward direction is clear. At present, the winter storage and replenishment of raw materials in steel mills has been started, the high level of port import ore drainage has risen, and the signal of the transfer of imported ore stocks from ports to steel mills has appeared. Looking back on the peak value of imported ore inventory before and after the Spring Festival in the past years, the potential imported ore replenishment space of steel mills is large.
Iron ore stocks: neutral
The absolute value of imported mine stocks at the port is on the high side, but the port inventory has been lower than expected since October, and the inventory has fluctuated at a high level. Steel mills raw material winter storage inventory has been started, 247 sample steel mills imported mine inventory gradually increased. The total iron stocks of all links are slowly declining.
Iron ore base difference: neutral
The basis is low.
Iron ore monthly spread: Neutral
Winter storage and replenishment supported iron ore spot and recent months prices, 1-5 price spread expanded month on month.
Cross-variety ratio/spread: Neutral
The differentiation of strong iron ore and weak coking coal continues.
Industrial chain cost profit: neutral
Downstream steel mills (neutral and negative) : iron ore and scrap prices rose slightly, steel mill immediate profit narrowed quarter on quarter, suppressing iron ore price height.
Upstream mines (neutral) : iron ore swap prices have reached a high of nearly $105, focusing on the guiding role of rising iron ore prices for non-mainstream ore shipments.
In summary, before the important meeting in December, the positive expectations of macro policies are temporarily difficult to be falsifalsiated, the contradictions in the fundamentals of materials are not prominent, the daily production of hot metal is still at a high level, the winter storage of raw materials in steel mills has been started, the short-term iron ore prices are strong and volatile, and the upper space is suppressed by the low immediate profits of steel mills and high inventory at ports. Strategically, continue to hold 01 contract multi-iron ore empty coking coal arbitrage portfolio.
Steel plant raw material replenishment started, imported ore inventory gradually increased (updated to 11.29)
coke
The real demand is weak, and the coal coke is weak and difficult to change
Coal coke supply:
(1) Coking coal (neutral and negative) : The year is coming, the enthusiasm of the mine to raise production is not good, but the actual production adjustment effect is not strong, and the supply of raw coal remains loose.
(2) Coke (neutral) : The bargaining power of coke enterprises is insufficient, and the operating pressure is still large, coupled with the increase of production restrictions in the north in winter, the production rhythm of coke ovens is temporarily stable.
Coal coke demand: neutral to negative
(1) Coking coal: steel coke enterprise production link is expected to continue to weaken, raw material procurement is more on demand, pit bidding atmosphere pessimistic, pulling enthusiasm is at a low level, the actual demand support is weak.
(2) Coke: steel transactions are not good, steel mills mainly purchase raw materials on demand, and the daily output of molten iron appears at the top stage, and the actual demand is weak and difficult to change.
Coal coke inventory: neutral to negative
(1) Coking coal: the downstream replenishment is weak, the trade link is not willing to enter the market, and the pressure on the mine end is not reduced.
(2) Coke: The shipping pressure of coke enterprises is increased, the accumulation of stocks in the factory is accelerated, and the traders' wait-and-see mentality is mostly, and the various links of coke are accumulated to different degrees.
Coal coke base difference: neutral
Base difference assessment of port Shanxi coking coal is relatively neutral.
The evaluation of primary focal difference in port is relatively neutral.
Coal coke monthly price spread: neutral more favorable
(1) Coking coal: The performance of the far-month contract is stronger, and the month-to-month spread is at a high for the same period.
(2) Coke: The performance of the far month contract is stronger, and the monthly spread is at a high for the same period.
Industrial chain cost profit: neutral
Coking coal: The overall operating condition of the industrial chain is not good, and the profits of the mine end are tightened.
Coke: The cost support effect is not good, and coke has completed three rounds of reduction, and coking profits have been further tightened.
In summary, it is expected that the low price of coking coal and coke will fluctuate
Coking coal: the traditional off-season pressure realistic demand, downstream profitability is relatively limited, steel coke enterprises production line start and raw material replenishment enthusiasm decreased simultaneously, coal mine accumulation pressure is not reduced, coking coal prices affected by this continued weak trend, pay attention to the subsequent winter storage expectations and actual strength.
Coke: coke reality just need to support weak, steel mills are still expected to see a decline, port trade transactions are down again, market sentiment is still pessimistic, coke prices to find the bottom, pay attention to winter storage expectations and the actual process.
Seasonal characteristics of total coking coal stocks (updated to 11.29)
Steel scrap
Scrap steel needs to fall back, pay attention to winter storage demand
Scrap supply: neutral and bearish
Scrap prices rose slightly compared with the previous month, the arrival of steel scrap has rebounded, and the supply of scrap steel is still at a neutral high level throughout the year.
Iron ore demand: Neutral
Short-process steel mill losses to reduce production, scrap daily consumption is easy to reduce but difficult to increase. Follow-up attention to the supporting role of steel mill raw material winter storage on scrap demand.
Scrap stock: Neutral
Long process steel mills, as well as the base scrap inventory continued to increase.
Cross-variety ratio/spread: Neutral
The price of scrap steel has no cost-effective advantage over hot metal, and electric furnaces have taken the lead in reducing production.
Industrial chain cost profit: neutral and negative
The immediate profit of short process steel mills has contracted.
In summary, the daily consumption of scrap steel will be seasonal downward, and the winter storage of raw materials in steel mills has been started one after another. The scrap itself is not strong and will follow the black plate.
Steel scrap inventory continues to increase (updated to 11.29)
Iron ore: unilateral, watch; Combination: Buy I2501- sell JM2501.
With the start of winter storage and replenishment of raw materials in steel mills, the potential replenishment space of iron ore is relatively larger. And coking coal, midstream inventory growth rate continues to be faster than iron ore.
Policy Tracking (updated as of 11.29)
Iron mine
Steel plant raw material winter storage has started, iron ore prices are relatively strong
coke
The real demand is weak, and the coal coke is weak and difficult to change
Steel scrap
Scrap steel needs to fall back, pay attention to winter storage demand
