For the view of the price index in December, 85% of the iron ore industry enterprises in the survey sample believe that the average price in December increased compared with November, 10% of iron ore industry enterprises believe that the average price in December and November, only 5% of enterprises believe that the average price in December is basically flat.
In terms of price trend, 55% enterprises believe that the iron ore price trend in December will rise first and then fall, 38% enterprises think that it will fall first and then rise, 4% enterprises think that it will rise unilaterally, 3% enterprises think that it will fall unilaterally; From the perspective of the final value and the initial value of the period, 47% of enterprises believe that the final value of iron ore prices in December is higher than the initial value of the period (low before and high after), and 53% of enterprises believe that the former is high before and low after.
In terms of the shipping mentality of trading enterprises, 76% of trading enterprises will mainly ship, 16% of trading enterprises
Data source: Steel Link data
In November, Mysteel iron ore 62% Australian powder index maintained range volatility, and the price trend showed an "N" type trend. This month, 62% of the Australian powder index remained in the range of 97-106 US dollars/dry ton, the lowest point was 97.15 US dollars/dry ton on November 15, the highest point was 105.75 US dollars/dry ton on November 7. As of November 26, 62% of the Australian powder index averaged $102 / dry ton in November. Consistent with the conclusion of our previous research report, the average price is in the range of 100-105 US dollars.
As of November 26, 62% Australian powder index 103.15 US dollars/dry ton, 6 US dollars/dry ton higher than the lowest point in the month, an increase of 6%; $2.60 / dry ton, or 2% below the highest point in the month. So far, the average price of the index in October is $104 / dry ton, and the average price of the index in November is $102 / dry ton.
Mysteel Iron Ore Division investigated the major participating enterprises in the iron ore market, and conducted a survey on the average iron ore price, trend and trade mentality in December. The specific results are as follows:
Problem one
More than 80% of enterprises believe that the average price of the index in December rose compared with November
Source: Mysteel Research
For the view of the price index in December, 85% of the iron ore industry enterprises in the survey sample believe that the average price in December increased compared with November, 10% of iron ore industry enterprises believe that the average price in December and November, only 5% of enterprises believe that the average price in December is basically flat.
Among them, the main reasons for the bullish are (1) high support for hot metal (2) expectations of winter storage and replenishment, rising market sentiment (3) important meetings in December or the introduction of favorable policies (4) no negative news, prices slightly firmer;
The main reasons for the bearishness are (1) not optimistic about winter storage and replenishment expectations (2) limited production or will become stricter, hot metal decline expectations (3) steel mill profits are weak, active inventory enthusiasm is weak (4) port iron ore inventory is high.
In addition, part of the shock is mainly because there are winter storage expectations, but the strength of winter storage needs to be considered.
The range distribution of the price forecast: 74% of enterprises in December average price forecast range of $105- $110 (including $105 and $110), 25% of enterprises average price forecast below $105, 1% of enterprises average price forecast above $110.
Problem two
More than 50% of enterprises believe that the trend of iron ore prices in December will rise first and then fall
Source: Mysteel Research
In terms of price trend, 55% enterprises believe that the price trend of iron ore in December will rise first and then fall, 38% enterprises think that it will fall first and then rise, 4% enterprises think that it will rise unilaterally, and 3% enterprises think that it will fall unilaterally. From the perspective of the final value and the initial value of the period, 47% of enterprises believe that the final value of iron ore prices in December is higher than the initial value of the period (low before and high after), and 53% of enterprises believe that the former is high before and low after.
It is believed that the main logic of the first rise and then fall is that the market trades the expectation of winter storage and the price rises; However, steel mill profits are not good, hot metal is expected to fall at a high level, and prices may be corrected.
Comprehensive price trend forecast and the forecast of the relationship between the final value and the initial value of the period, we can predict the high probability trend of iron ore prices in December as shown in the figure above.
Question three
More than 70% of the trading enterprises will be mainly shipped
Source: Mysteel Research
In terms of the shipping mentality of trading enterprises, 76% of trading enterprises will mainly ship, 16% of trading enterprises choose to wait and see, 4% of trading enterprises are ready to choose the opportunity to stockpile, 4% of trading enterprises choose to support the price and hesitate to sell.
Shipping based trading enterprises mainly consider that (1) this year's winter storage is expected to be slightly worse (2) more spot in hand, down positions.
For the winter storage, the market view is quite different, some market participants said that the winter storage expectation is still there, which supports the price in December; However, some market participants said that this year's winter storage expectations are slightly worse. In the survey sample, some steel mills indicated that they would store in winter, but did not have a winter storage plan for the time being; There are also some steel mills said that they do not store in winter, and demand replenishment is mainly based, but the inventory will be slightly increased for a few days near the eve of the Spring Festival, and the overall inventory is still maintained and does not build high inventory.